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Rulebook
Demo mode

Trade the rules,
not the headline.

Understand exactly what resolves YES, what resolves NO, which source decides the outcome, and where your thesis can break before entering a position.

Sample market

Will BTC be above $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Probability

64%

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves YES if

Resolves YES if the official reference price for BTC is above $150,000 at the stated deadline

Resolves NO if

Resolves NO if the official reference price is $150,000 or lower at the deadline

Timing trap

This market settles at the deadline, not on any intraday touch.

+

Will BTC touch $150,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

Different wording = different risk

Review before entry

What Rulebook does

1.

Rules Analysis

  • Exact YES/NO criteria
  • Hidden edge cases
  • Common misreads
2.

Risk Mapping

  • Source reliability
  • Wording ambiguity
  • Timing traps
3.

Thesis Check

  • Validate your thesis
  • Catch mismatches
  • Spot gotchas